Regulatory moves, rate cases, capacity market shifts, and competitive supply developments across every major U.S. ISO. Curated for the people who actually trade, schedule, and manage energy portfolios.
November futures rose 1.3 cents to $3.048. Storage slipped to 1.8% above the five-year average from 2.4% a week ago. LNG feedgas is tracking 17.6 Bcf a day with Freeport ramping, while a Kentucky pipeline outage dragged output toward a four-month low.
Constellation will uprate 11 units across Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey under a 20-year deal, with the first megawatts due in 2028. It adds a 15-year, 2,700 MW supply agreement and $4.3 billion of investment. That's real new supply, but PJM is still about 6.8 GW short and capacity sits at the cap, so don't expect relief soon.
Two projects won the first round: 400 MW/1,600 MWh at Chalk Point and 40 MW/160 MWh at Jade Meadow III, on 15-year terms. The shortfall reflects PJM's tight capacity market, with prices pinned at the $325/MW-day ceiling. The batteries will shave peaks once online, which pushes PJM peak prices down.
Filings on Oct. 5 mostly support MISO's proposal to fast-track about 71 GW of legacy projects. It allows penalty-free exits before Decision Point II on Oct. 20 and lifts the withdrawal cost threshold from 35% to 50%. One IPP objected. Faster interconnection means more supply reaching the Midwest sooner.
Front month sits at $3.08 with $3.10 the first resistance and $3.00 the floor. U.S. LNG exports hit 10.9 million tons in September, with 54% going to Europe, and Freeport is recovering toward 1.9 Bcf a day of feedgas. Export pull is carrying the tape, and the bias stays constructive above $3.00.
NYISO's 2026 Reliability Needs Assessment says aging plants are no longer the main worry. Retirements, big new data center loads and intermittent renewables will outweigh the grid's positives by 2032. That points to tighter reserves and firmer prices in New York.
Constellation and Amazon signed a 20-year deal for 690 MW from Calvert Cliffs, including 190 MW of new capacity due between 2030 and 2032. It backs more than $3 billion of plant investment and a 20-year relicense. Existing megawatts move to a tech buyer and only the 190 MW is new supply, so don't expect it to move PJM prices soon.
The Large Load Addition Resource Study would cover loads above 200 MW paired with generation in the same local resource zone. Pairs must stay connected for 15 years, and MISO wants FERC sign-off by Dec. 2 for a first study cycle in early 2027. It's a MISO item, but it shows where large-load rules are headed across the Midwest and PJM.
Sunday's peak was just 60,263 MW after rain, 2.2% under forecast. Today's forecast climbs to 67,500 MW and tomorrow's to 68,600 MW. Wind stays weak this week, so the weekly average generation estimate drops to about 57 GW from 65.7 GW last week.
The plan leans on capacity auction reforms, new large-load rules and a dynamic operating reserve product. It also carries Order 1920 compliance and longer-term transmission planning. It tells you where the next round of New England market rule changes will land.
Gross withdrawals set an all-time high, with Permian wells adding about 1.7 Bcf a day in a month. The Hugh Brinson Pipeline started interstate flows early and opened more takeaway to Gulf Coast LNG. More supply with a bigger outlet keeps pressure on Henry Hub.
Peak load hit 66,732 MW against a 73,300 MW forecast, with a daily average of 60,110 MW. Forecasts step down to 63,800 MW Friday and 62,000 MW Saturday. Cooler weather and better solar next week keep the prompt market soft.
Newsom signed SB 913 and SB 905. One makes the CPUC set a value for stored power sold back at peak. The other pushes utilities to shift load off their tightest circuits. It's CAISO, not a tracked market, but it's the template for how flexibility gets paid and it softens peak prices where it spreads.
Stakeholders in ISO-NE and PJM say the deal would concentrate market power and push costs onto ratepayers. State regulators, grid operators and market monitors are all weighing in. Nothing is decided, so treat it as a watch item for bilateral pricing in both pools.
PJM stakeholders endorsed a term sheet that would give states more say in how the RTO runs. State officials and consumer advocates say it falls short. Who sets capacity and large-load rules is still unsettled, and that keeps pricing risk on the table.
Working gas reached 3,415 Bcf for the week ending Sept. 25, still 4% under last year. EIA sees inventories near 4 Tcf by the end of October, the second-highest on record. Output near 112 Bcf a day keeps a lid on Henry Hub around $3.
November futures slipped 0.6 cents to $3.02. Lower 48 output held at 113.3 Bcf a day in September, matching August's record, and LNG feedgas climbed to 17.9 Bcf a day even with Cove Point in maintenance. Analysts looked for a 64 Bcf build, light against the 80 Bcf five-year norm, but supply is outrunning the pull.
The bipartisan bill would give FERC authority to permit transmission projects found to be in the public interest. It also kills the National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors and the federal right of first refusal for incumbent utilities. Amendments come when the Senate returns in November. More wires mean less congestion, and that takes pressure off delivered power costs over time.
The New York Power Authority is partnering with EDF Power Solutions on Rich Road Solar. It's NYPA's largest solar build since its 2023 mandate and its first public-private deal. Construction starts in late 2027 and power flows by 2030, so this is a long-dated supply add, not a price signal for the next few winters.
Gas fell 2.3% to $2.957, under the 50-day average at $3.036. Warm early October weather and production growing about twice as fast as demand keep the pressure on. Storage is on track for decade-high levels by month end, and the Columbia Gas force majeure that gave prices a brief lift has cleared.
FERC only partly approved PJM's reliability backstop on Sept. 29, flagging cost allocation, transmission owner exit rules and load-serving entity collateral. PJM postponed the procurement that was set to open Sept. 30. It was meant to line up about 6.8 GW of new capacity for data center load, so that supply is now late and the shortfall stays in the price. Chair Swett called it a "deeply flawed, eleventh-hour" mechanism.
Peak load hit 80,912 MW, about 1% under forecast but above the upper band of the trailing five-year range for the date. Rain moving southeast across Texas should cool things off and pull load down over the next few days. Wind is strong now but fades as the front passes, so watch the evening ramp.
The MISO utility's 20-year plan retires coal and takes gas from about 5% of its supply to 60% by 2045. It also carries 3.6 GW of solar, 2.4 GW of storage, 1.5 GW of wind and 1.2 GW of nuclear for data center load. That's a lot of future gas burn tied to one utility, and advocates are already pushing back.
November futures fell 2% to $3.043 on a lower near-term demand forecast. LSEG sees Lower 48 demand at 102.6 Bcf a day this week and 105.1 next week, and temperatures stay near normal through Oct. 14. Storage sits 2.4% above the five-year average, down from 2.9% a week ago, and the Mountaineer XPress outage is over.
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