NAT GAS Neutral
A 61 Bcf storage build misses estimates, but the surplus to normal still widens to 75 Bcf
Inventories rose 61 Bcf to 3,862 Bcf in the week ended Nov. 6, about 5 Bcf under the consensus guess and well off last week's 77 Bcf. That's still a bigger build than the five-year norm, so the cushion over average stretched to 75 Bcf even with stocks 92 Bcf below last year. South Central salt is the tight spot at 312 Bcf, 19 Bcf under normal, and that's where winter basis risk lives.
IndexBox (EIA data) · Nov 13, 2026
PJM Bullish
PJM's market monitor puts nine-month wholesale cost at $111.61/MWh, up 41%
Monitoring Analytics says total PJM wholesale cost hit $111.61/MWh through September, up from $79.19 a year ago. Energy rose 46% to $70.89/MWh and capacity jumped 81% to $19.42/MWh, with data center load adding about $9.95 on its own. The IMM still calls the capacity auctions through 2028/29 not competitive, so the cost pressure isn't easing.
Monitoring Analytics · Nov 12, 2026
PJM Bearish
PJM's winter study sees adequate reserves, with load management as the backstop
PJM's Operations Assessment Task Force projects adequate reserve margins for winter 2026/27 and no reliability issues. Some stress scenarios could still call on load management. Comfortable reserves take some scarcity risk out of winter peak pricing, even with NERC flagging a possible record peak.
RTO Insider · Nov 12, 2026
ERCOT REGULATORY Bearish
ERCOT's Vegas wants authority to curtail data centers before an emergency hits
ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas will ask lawmakers to let the grid order data center cuts at the first level of an emergency alert, or even earlier. Today ERCOT has to reach level two first, and it hasn't used its SB 6 curtailment power yet. Shedding big load sooner trims the scarcity spikes REPs end up paying for.
Insurance Journal (Bloomberg) · Nov 12, 2026
NYISO Bearish
New York launches a second bulk storage solicitation for another 1 GW
NYSERDA opened its second bulk energy storage solicitation on Nov. 12, targeting about 1 GW of grid-scale batteries. It follows eight contracts totaling 950 MW from round one two months ago. More storage on the NYISO system flattens peaks and leans on capacity prices over time.
RTO Insider · Nov 12, 2026
NYISO REGULATORY Neutral
ConEd flags a growing NYC capacity gap and wants utilities back in the generation business
ConEd projects a New York City capacity shortfall of 125 MW by 2033, growing to 675 MW by 2036 and 2,275 MW by 2045. It's joining in-state utilities asking to jointly own up to 1 GW a year of renewables, which New York's restructured market mostly bars today. A tighter NYC zone leans bullish, but new utility-owned supply would offset it, so call it neutral for now.
Utility Dive · Nov 12, 2026
NAT GAS Bullish
December gas posts its highest close since February as colder forecasts spark short covering
December futures rose 5.7 cents to $3.353/MMBtu on Wednesday, a nine-month high close and up about 12% on the week. Colder two-week forecasts, near-record LNG feedgas and speculators covering their biggest net short since 2020 drove the move. Storage sits about 2.1% above normal, and EIA's holiday-delayed report lands Friday.
Reuters via Business Recorder · Nov 12, 2026
ISO-NE Neutral
ISO-NE's five-year plan calls for a forward trading platform and dual-fuel incentives
CEO Vamsi Chadalavada laid out ISO-NE's five-year strategy at the open board meeting. It includes a forward trading platform, better data access, incentives for dual-fuel capability and more use of demand flexibility. These are multi-year design items, so there's no near-term price direction.
RTO Insider · Nov 11, 2026
PJM ISO-NE Neutral
Constellation pitches Peak+ hybrid capacity deals and buys a 609 MW Rhode Island gas plant
Constellation's new Peak+ contract pairs existing nuclear with batteries, demand response and new build, priced $20 to $50/MWh above the nuclear PTC floor. That's well under the $110 to $130/MWh it pegs for new combined-cycle in eastern PJM. It's also buying the 609 MW Rhode Island State Energy Center for $715M to run merchant in ISO-NE. Contracting existing supply doesn't add megawatts, so no clear price move yet.
Utility Dive · Nov 11, 2026
PJM REGULATORY Neutral
FERC's LaCerte says PJM's capacity price collar can't last forever
FERC Commissioner David LaCerte says PJM's spring price collar gets another look before the May auction and can't run indefinitely. He wants faster action from PJM, more new entrants and a bigger state role in governance. Lifting the collar would lean capacity prices higher, but nothing's been filed, so call it neutral for now.
Utility Dive · Nov 11, 2026 · FERC
NAT GAS Bullish
Gas futures push above $3.30 as a colder Northeast starts pulling on demand
Futures traded near $3.37, clearing $3.30 resistance, as temps drop in the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Storage sits at 3,801 Bcf, just 54 Bcf above the five-year average, and South Central is running below normal. EIA trimmed its 2026 Henry Hub call to $3.37 and NOAA favors a warm Nov. 16 to 20 in the central U.S., so Friday's storage print matters.
FXEmpire · Nov 11, 2026
NAT GAS Bearish
EIA cuts its winter Henry Hub forecast 16% to $2.87 as storage runs fat
EIA's November STEO now sees Henry Hub averaging $2.87/MMBtu from November through March, 16% under last month's call and 36% below last winter. A mild start to November pushes end-of-month storage to 3,840 Bcf, 67 Bcf above the October view. Production keeps outrunning demand, so the agency doesn't see a winter squeeze unless the weather turns hard.
EIA · Nov 10, 2026
PJM Bearish
PJM's fast-track queue grows to four projects, mostly batteries, worth about 2,600 MW
PJM accepted a fourth project into its Expedited Interconnection Track: three big battery builds in Pennsylvania and Ohio plus a 455 MW gas upgrade at Hunterstown. All four target mid-2029. It's new supply aimed straight at the capacity crunch, which leans on future capacity and peak prices, though nothing lands before 2029.
PJM Inside Lines · Nov 10, 2026
PJM Neutral
NERC says most generators can handle extreme cold, but PJM is eyeing a record winter peak
NERC's cold weather report finds 99% of U.S. winter capacity says it can run at extreme-cold temps, though 85.7 GW reported constraints, mostly wind. PJM expects about 182 GW of capacity against a forecast peak near 147.5 GW, which would be a new winter record. Reserves look fine on paper, so the price risk sits in a hard cold snap, not the base case.
Utility Dive · Nov 10, 2026
ISO-NE Bearish
New England's summer wholesale bill fell to $2.52B as gas prices dropped 22%
ISO-NE's Internal Market Monitor puts summer 2026 wholesale costs at $2.52 billion, down from $2.61 billion a year ago. Average gas came in at $2.56/MMBtu, 22% lower, and peak demand slipped 3% even as average load rose 1%. Wind averaged 500 MW, up from 300 MW, which kept more pressure on energy prices.
ISO Newswire · Nov 10, 2026
ERCOT REGULATORY Neutral
ERCOT widens its large-load verification and audits to medium-sized loads
ERCOT has split its large-load verification and audit work into three workstreams so smaller loads get counted too. General Counsel Chad Seely briefed the PUCT, and a new interconnection standard for large loads has been published. Tighter vetting can trim speculative load from the forecast, but it's process for now, not a price mover.
RTO Insider · Nov 9, 2026
NYISO Neutral
NYISO finds no consumer benefit from splitting TCCs into sub-daily blocks
A NYISO consumer impact analysis found that carving transmission congestion contracts into blocks shorter than 24 hours wouldn't help consumers. The idea came up at the ICAP and market issues working group. That makes the reform less likely to move ahead, so congestion hedging in New York stays as is.
RTO Insider · Nov 9, 2026
NAT GAS Bearish
Henry Hub falls a third straight week to $2.60 as late autumn warmth fattens storage builds
NGI sees a 67 Bcf injection for the week ended Nov. 6, 23 Bcf above last year, with the surplus to the five-year average growing to 81 Bcf. Heating demand ran 21% below normal and all 12 regional spot averages fell. Output dropped 3.3 Bcf/d, but mild weather is winning for now.
NGI · Nov 9, 2026
PJM Bullish
PPL lifts its capital plan to $25B as Pennsylvania data center load in advanced stages hits 35.3 GW
PPL raised its 2027 to 2030 plan by $2 billion, mostly for a proposed 645 MW Kentucky gas plant. Its Pennsylvania pipeline of advanced-stage load grew 3.5 GW in a quarter. More load chasing a tight supply stack is a firm signal for PJM energy and capacity prices.
Utility Dive · Nov 9, 2026
NYISO REGULATORY Neutral
NYISO asks stakeholders whether to abandon its capacity demand curve reform project
At the Installed Capacity Working Group, NYISO staff floated dropping the Demand Curve Reset improvements project and asked for input. The capacity market design is on the table, and any change would move how NYISO prices capacity. No cost impact is public yet, so no clear price signal.
RTO Insider · Nov 9, 2026
REGULATORY Neutral
State regulators brace for an affordability backlash after the election
At NARUC's annual meeting, regulators said new officials and customers are questioning foundational rate approaches, and they mostly want lower bills. A new effort will test grid spending on measurable consumer value. Expect tougher scrutiny of cost recovery and large load tariffs.
Utility Dive · Nov 9, 2026
ERCOT Neutral
ERCOT prices tick up on lower renewables, but loads keep sliding into mid-November
Impedance Match expects average system load near 49.8 GW through Friday, down from about 53 GW the prior week. Prices open the week modestly higher because renewable output is lower. Load still sits at the top of the five-year band, and the author sees it heading lower from here.
Impedance Match · Nov 9, 2026
NAT GAS Neutral
Colder central and eastern forecasts prop up December gas, but the winter curve still leans soft
Cooler weather through Nov. 20 is supporting nearby December futures, which are testing a $3.09 hurdle on the way to $3.24. Net LNG feedgas hit a record 21.4 Bcf/d, per BNEF. A Super El Niño call for a warm winter keeps April near $2.36, so the curve stays steep. Next storage report lands Friday, Nov. 13, with a 45 to 55 Bcf build expected.
FXEmpire · Nov 9, 2026
ERCOT Neutral
ERCOT parks Batch Zero while it builds a broader transmission planning process
Batch Zero, ERCOT's batch study effort, is effectively on hold. ERCOT and stakeholders are working on a comprehensive planning process meant to replace batch studies down the road. The details sit behind the subscription wall, so timing is thin. For now, nothing changes the near-term supply picture.
RTO Insider · Nov 8, 2026
ERCOT Bullish
Oncor sets a new 33 GW peak, and Sempra sees its capex plan jumping 20%
Oncor hit a system peak of 33 GW, up 6% from the prior record. Sempra expects the $47.5 billion five-year base capital plan to rise about 20% at the next update. Its CEO called Texas demand growth "remarkably strong." More load across the Oncor footprint is another sign ERCOT peak pricing has upside.
Utility Dive · Nov 6, 2026
ISO-NE Bearish
Revolution Wind hits full capacity, adding 704 MW to the New England supply stack
Eversource says the 704-MW Revolution Wind project is now running at full capacity. Eversource's Q3 income fell 22% to $346 million, and about $880 million in possible FERC-ordered transmission refunds is still hanging over it. For power buyers, more offshore wind on the margin softens winter-shoulder pricing in ISO-NE.
Utility Dive · Nov 6, 2026
NAT GAS Neutral
Gas near $3 as a 77 Bcf build keeps storage above normal but warmth caps the rally
EIA reported a 77 Bcf injection for the week ending Oct. 30, leaving working gas at 3,801 Bcf. That's 54 Bcf above the five-year average. South Central stocks sit below their average, so regional basis is worth watching. NOAA favors above-normal temps for Nov. 11 to 15, and the next storage report lands Friday, Nov. 13.
FXEmpire · Nov 6, 2026